Forecasting Tech Companies Next Moves
I want to throw a few predictions about the next year or two in terms of where some of the bigger tech companies are headed for consideration/discussion. Remember, this is purely me speculating about things.
Google + Motorola
They will create the ultimate Android phone by matching the hardware and tweaking the OS in a way that only Apple has been able todo up until now. This phone (or series of phones) will provide serious competition to iOS. Android will sit in 3rd place on tablets. Google has some major catching up to do in terms of TV content. Though Youtube is a massive asset for video delivery, they need to beat Netflix/Hulu in terms of content being made available.
Microsoft
Win8 is going to be huge and bring Microsoft back into the forefront of computing. The Metro UI has proved extremely successful and the unification of their desktop, tablet, phone and console systems could create an incredibly powerful end-to-end experience for consumers. The Xbox 360 will gain the ability to use Win8 Metro apps as controllers. Win8 Metro will give the iPad a run for it's money.
Apple
They will continue to dominate. Their continued simplification of everything they do will allow them to win the hearts and minds of consumers, though they will continue to fall from grace with the designers and developers who were early adopters and won them their current success. If they want to compete at the scale of Microsoft though they will need to do a better job getting into people's living rooms. The rumours of an Apple TV with iOS embedded may be just the ticket. Though lack of true console gaming power will be a problem.
Sony
Not sure about these guys. The PS4 would need to be something out of this world if it's going to keep up with the momentum that all of the above have.
Adobe
These guys will continue to do what they do well, make great software for creating content. Flash Plugin in the browser or not, their production software is top-notch. They will continue to support output for HTML 5 / javascript development. Flash will become a de facto platform for game development across desktops, mobile and even consoles – Unity will help enable this. In fact I still say Adobe will end up acquiring Unity. I think they'd be foolish not to as they need a 3D production suite under their belt in order for all this development of Stage3D to make sense. Mobile app development will also be a key part of this. They are continuing to show that AIR is a viable way to build cross-platform apps and the Flex framework is a bigger support for this as well.
Thoughts on Open vs Closed Systems
On one end we have Google, going as open source as possible, contributing to the community, giving stuff away, providing open access to marketplaces, etc. At the other is Apple, with extremely tight control over their entire platform. Somewhere in the middle is Microsoft. Google's approach will continue to keep them from dominating the marketplace, Apple will eventually need to relax a little or risk being superceded by someone else. Microsoft may just have the perfect approach, build a solid platform, proprietary for them to make money off of, but able to deliver any application or content source that is made available to it.
I know, I'm really simplifying a lot of things above, but these are my general thoughts about where these players are all headed. I welcome feedback on any of this.